by Michael T. Klare
It has once again become fashionable for the dwindling supporters of
President Bush's futile war in Iraq to stress the danger of "Islamo-fascism"
and the supposed drive by followers of Osama bin Laden to establish a
monolithic, Taliban-like regime -- a "Caliphate" -- stretching from
Gibraltar to Indonesia. The President himself has employed this term on
occasion over the years, using it to describe efforts by Muslim extremists
to create "a totalitarian empire that denies all political and religious
freedom." While there may indeed be hundreds, even thousands, of disturbed
and suicidal individuals who share this delusional vision, the world
actually faces a far more substantial and universal threat, which might be
dubbed: Energo-fascism, or the militarization of the global struggle over
ever-diminishing supplies of energy.
Unlike Islamo-fascism, Energo-fascism will, in time, affect nearly every
person on the planet. Either we will be compelled to participate in or
finance foreign wars to secure vital supplies of energy, such as the current
conflict in Iraq; or we will be at the mercy of those who control the energy
spigot, like the customers of the Russian energy juggernaut Gazprom in
Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia; or sooner or later we may find ourselves
under constant state surveillance, lest we consume more than our allotted
share of fuel or engage in illicit energy transactions. This is not simply
some future dystopian nightmare, but a potentially all-encompassing reality
whose basic features, largely unnoticed, are developing today.
These include:
* The transformation of the U.S. military into a global oil protection
service whose primary mission is to defend America's overseas sources of oil
and natural gas, while patrolling the world's major pipelines and supply
routes.
* The transformation of Russia into an energy superpower with control over
Eurasia's largest supplies of oil and natural gas and the resolve to convert
these assets into ever increasing political influence over neighboring
states.
* A ruthless scramble among the great powers for the remaining oil, natural
gas, and uranium reserves of Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and
Asia, accompanied by recurring military interventions, the constant
installation and replacement of client regimes, systemic corruption and
repression, and the continued impoverishment of the great majority of those
who have the misfortune to inhabit such energy-rich regions.
* Increased state intrusion into, and surveillance of, public and private
life as reliance on nuclear power grows, bringing with it an increased
threat of sabotage, accident, and the diversion of fissionable materials
into the hands of illicit nuclear proliferators.
Together, these and related phenomena constitute the basic characteristics
of an emerging global Energo-fascism. Disparate as they may seem, they all
share a common feature: increasing state involvement in the procurement,
transportation, and allocation of energy supplies, accompanied by a greater
inclination to employ force against those who resist the state's priorities
in these areas. As in classical twentieth century fascism, the state will
assume ever greater control over all aspects of public and private life in
pursuit of what is said to be an essential national interest: the
acquisition of sufficient energy to keep the economy functioning and public
services (including the military) running.
The Demand/Supply Conundrum
Powerful, potentially planet-altering trends like this do not occur in a
vacuum. The rise of Energo-fascism can be traced to two overarching
phenomena: an imminent collision between energy demand and energy supplies,
and the historic migration of the center of gravity of planetary energy
output from the global north to the global south.
For the past 60 years, the international energy industry has largely
succeeded in satisfying the world's ever-growing thirst for energy in all
its forms. When it comes to oil alone, global demand jumped from 15 to 82
million barrels per day between 1955 and 2005, an increase of 450%. Global
output rose by a like amount in those years. Worldwide demand is expected to
keep growing at this rate, if not faster, for years to come -- propelled in
large part by rising affluence in China, India, and other developing
nations. There is, however, no expectation that global output can continue
to keep pace.
Quite the opposite: A growing number of energy experts believe that the
global output of "conventional" (liquid) crude oil will soon reach a peak --
perhaps as early as 2010 or 2015 -- and then begin an irreversible decline.
If this proves to be the case, no amount of inputs from Canadian tar sands,
shale oil, or other "unconventional" sources will prevent a catastrophic
liquid-fuel shortage in a decade or so, producing widespread economic
trauma. The global supply of other primary fuels, including natural gas,
coal, and uranium is not expected to contract as rapidly, but all of these
materials are finite, and will eventually become scarce. . . .
The Pentagon: A Global Oil-Protection Service
The most significant expression of this trend has been the transformation of
the U.S. military into a global oil-protection service whose primary
function is the guarding of overseas energy supplies as well as their global
delivery systems . . .
Of course, senior officials and foreign policy elites are generally loath to
acknowledge such crass motivations for the utilization of military force --
they much prefer to talk about spreading democracy and fighting terrorism. . . .
FULL TEXT PART 1,
PART 2
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[Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at
Hampshire College and the author of Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's
Growing Dependence on Imported Petroleum.]
Lutz Kleveman, "The New Great
Game," Guardian, October 20, 2003
[In any event, the world production peak for conventionally reservoired
crude is unlikely to be "right around the corner" as so many other
estimators have been predicting. Our analysis shows that it will be closer
to the middle of the 21st century than to its beginning--John H. Wood, Gary
R. Long, David F. Morehouse, "Long-Term World Oil Supply
Scenarios," DOE/EIA, August 18, 2004]
Daniel Howden and Philip Thornton, "The Pipeline That Will Change the
World," Independent, May 25, 2005
Paul R. Dunn, "Islamic Fascism: The
Propaganda of Our Times," The Wisdom Fund, September 6, 2006
["As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels is almost
100 billion barrels over any realistic assay. If the higher figure was for
real, its oil industry would not be struggling day in and day out to keep
output at between 3.0-3.5 million barrels per day . . .
"My World Oil Production Capacity model has predicted that over the next 14
years, present global production of 81 million barrels per day will decrease
by roughly 32%, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year
2020."-- "Why we must take Peak Oil seriously,
Money Week, September 13, 2006]
Dilip Hiro, "Blood of the Earth: The Battle for the World's Vanishing
Oil Resources," Nation Books (November 30, 2006)
[Demonization serves geopolitical and economic objectives. Likewise, the
campaign against "Islamic terrorism" (which is supported covertly by US
intelligence) supports the conquest of oil wealth. The term
"Islamo-fascism," serves to degrade the policies, institutions, values and
social fabric of Muslim countries, while also upholding the tenets of
"Western democracy" and the "free market" as the only alternative for these
countries.
The US led war in the broader Middle East Central Asian region consists in
gaining control over more than sixty percent of the world's supplies of oil
and natural gas. The Anglo-American oil giants also seek to gain control
over oil and gas pipeline routes out of the region. . . .
Muslim countries possess at least 16 times more oil than the Western
countries.--Michel Chossudovsky, "The 'Demonization' of Muslims and the Battle
for Oil," globalresearch.ca, January 4, 2007]
Danny Fortson, Andrew Murray-Watson and Tim Webb, "Future of Iraq: The Spoils of War," Independent,
January 7, 2007
[The primary interest, and that's true throughout the Middle East, even in
Saudi Arabia, the major energy producer, has always been control, not
access, and not profit. Profit is a secondary interest and access is a
tertiary interest.--Noam Chomsky, "War,
Neoliberalism and Empire in the 21st Century," Counterpunch, March
9, 2007]
Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
